If back in 2017, after that General Election that should not have taken place, someone had made a film predicting the state Parliament today and it had half of what we have seen unfolding since Boris Johnson came to power, we would all have said it was too farfetched! I’ve reached the stage of not wanting to hear the latest instalment but like a moth to the light, I get drawn in. It’s like I’m dreaming a Political soap opera because surely what I think is happening, cannot be true?
One thing that is true, and credit to him, Andrew George, our local Liberal Democrat Parliamentary candidate has been predicting an autumn General Election for some time. I’ve been a little dismissive but with recent events am concluding, one way or another we’re probably going to be going to the polls before 2019 is out.
The opposition parties, with the help of some now ex-Conservatives, have managed to control the Parliamentary agenda and a Bill to stop Boris Johnson taking us all over the Brexit cliff with him, looks set to become law. I personally don’t trust our Prime Minister and think he still might just do that through some wheeze his chums think up. It seems that he and his advisers and MP’s like Jacob Rees-Mogg are probably conniving to reach a situation where, just before the end of October, they accelerate very hard and drive us over the edge before anyone can stop them. Well that, or Boris Johnson is found dead in a ditch (not that I’m wishing that on him) as he said that is his preference to extending Article 50, which Parliament is requiring him to do, if he cannot get an acceptable deal.
Those who felt we should have left the EU back in 2016 are probably screaming obscenities at me by now because that is how divided this whole affair has left us. Families, neighbours and communities falling out over the best way forward for the Country and how to achieve what they most want. Who would want to attend a Johnson family gathering right now?
Meanwhile, there is Climate Change and the evidence scientists are clearly presenting that unless we not only slow our creation of greenhouse gases but also put things in reverse and start taking drastic action to absorb more than we produce, many species (and that might include us humans) are doomed. So, at the very time National and International Politics should be collaborating together to find a way of avoiding a Climate disaster we are bickering over what our young people must feel is totally irrelevant. At the very least, we need to look at how we are going to adapt to the inevitable extreme weather events that are already facing communities at home and abroad.
So, what will this General Election, that now seems inevitable achieve?
Scenario 1 – Boris Johnson has taken us out of the EU, on 31 October and gets rewarded with a majority. That will probably mean all 6 Cornish seats remain Tory, although, the St Ives Constituency could still revert to LibDem if a significant number of Green and Labour supporters lend Andrew their vote.
Scenario 2 – We remain in the EU because Article 50 has been extended to say the end of January. The Brexit Party would likely stand and gain significant vote share, possibly even a handful or so of MPs. They would take votes mainly from Conservatives and Labour and because LibDems have shown themselves to be the clearest party in support of the 48%, possibly more now, that would prefer to stay in the EU, we would likely pick up seats. Some even think LibDems could win enough seats to put Jo Swinson into number 10! Now whilst I’d love that to happen, I think that is unlikely but then we are in strange Political times so I’ll not rule it out. More likely is that we would have a hung Parliament situation, reflecting our divided Country and the General Election would solve nothing.
Scenario 2 would likely see North Cornwall and the St Ives constituency returning to Liberal Democrats, possibly 1 or 2 more and Labour might manage to win Camborne, Redruth and Hayle as I think with the entry of the Brexit Party there would move from a 3-way split to a 4-way split vote and it could go any which way!
Scenario 3 and this is my nightmare, we go to the polls before the end of October and end up with a coalition between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and Nigel Farage as his Deputy.
In all these scenarios, if you do not want your vote to contribute to putting Boris Johnson back in number 10 then in this constituency, the only way to ensure one less Conservative is to vote for Andrew George.
If you want to see Andrew George win the next election then get in touch to volunteer (use firstname.lastname@example.org) and please use the donate button at the side of this post to help finance our General Election campaign.